Macroeconomics of AG-EVTOL segment.

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Below is presented an estimate of fuel demand by the AG-EVTOL segment based on the following assumptions: 

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1. The anticipated combined fuel economy of the AG-EVTOL prototype is 26 MPG; the average annual miles per a lightweight vehicle in 2019 in the US is 13,500mi. 

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2. The amount of AG-EVTOLs that will be used for weekday air-commuting (city - suburb) constitutes around 15% of the number of light-weight vehicles (cars, SUVs). This percentage was assessed under the assumption that the annual cost of the air-commuting service is $23,000; see below. The average national air-commuting round-trip distance is 200mi; the number of air-commuting days in a calendar year is 230; the average annual miles per AG-EVTOL is [200*230/13,500], i.e., 3.4 times that of an average light-weight vehicle in 2019.

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3. The amount of AG-EVTOLs that will be used for weekend air-commuting (visiting a particular destination on weekends, such as traveling from NYC to Sarasota, FL for weekends, or from San Francisco to Los Angeles) takes up 3% of a number of light-weight vehicles. This number was assessed under the assumption that the annual cost of a weekend air-commuting service is around $27,300; see below. The average national weekend air-commuting round-trip distance is 2,100mi.; the number of weekend air-commuting events in a calendar year is 26; the average annual miles per air-vehicle is [2,100*26/13,500], i.e., 4.04 times of that of an average light-weight vehicle in 2019.

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With the average national light-weight vehicle fuel economy in 2019 of around 26 MPG, the gasoline consumption by highway transportation and AG-EVTOL vehicles can be assessed as follows:

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0.4*1*1+1*0.15*3.4+1*0.03*4.04=1.03,

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where the three terms on the left-hand part of the equation pertain to AG-EVs, weekday air-commuting AG-EVTOLS, and  weekend air-commuting AG-EVTOLs, accordingly; the first multiplier of each term is the relative fuel consumption, i.e. (Fuel economy/26 MPG); the second multiplier of each term is the relative amount of vehicles, i. e. (Number of AG-EVTOLs/Number of light-weight cars); the third multiplier of each term is the relative annual average miles per auto- or air- vehicle, i.e. (Annual average miles per a light-weight vehicle or AG-EVTOL in 2019/13.500mi). 

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The estimate shows that under the model's input assumptions, the AG-EVTOL segment will fully recoup the reduction of hydrocarbon fuel consumption caused by AG-EVs. The underlying cause is that the AG-EVTOL segment will provide people with an entirely new opportunity to regularly safely travel for long distances at high speed and without "breaking the bank".

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Microeconomics of AG-EVTOL business 

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The affordability of weekday and weekend air commuting derives from AG-EVTOL's impressive fuel economy and the moderate cost of such air vehicles. The power-plant of the AG-EVTOL prototype based on Lilium's jet is only around two times more powerful and stores around two times more energy than a powertrain of 2020 Tesla 3 Long Range AWD Performance (Tesla's 340 kW*2 vs. Lilium's 650 kW; Tesla's 75 kWh*2 vs Lilium's 144 kWh). The Tesla 3's retail price of $56,000 allows for assuming that once the AG-EVTOL prototype is launched into mass production, its price will be at most $250,000. 

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The new sector will take on a large portion of conventional short- and medium-haul aviation due to lower prices and greater convenience and flexibility of services.

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1. AG-EVTOL needs neither a runway nor an airport.

2. AG-EVTOL's per seat fuel efficiency for 4-seat configuration of [235.22/26/4], i.e., 2.26 L/100 km, is substantially the same as that of 2017 Boeing 737 MAX 9 of 2.28 L/100 km for distances 926–1,267 km.  

3. Since AG-EVTOL's overnight cost per seat is [250,000/4], i.e., $62,500, and that of Boeing 737 MAX 9 is [128,9/220], i.e., $586,000, the overnight cost per seat of AG-EVTOL is [586,000/62,500], i.e. 9.4 times lower than that of the 737 Boeing.

4. AG-EVTOLs will be autonomously navigated through broadband-connected low-orbit satellite constellations, such as SpaceX’s StarLink, Kuiperor, LeoSat, or Geespace. Accordingly, an AG-EVTOL fleet operator's personnel-associated costs will be lower that that of any conventional airline. 

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Distance-specific cost of air-commuting by AG-EVTOL is expected to be most $0.5 per mile. Since the cabin of the AG-EVTOL is not air-pressurized, the air vehicle will sustain many more flight cycles than conventional aircraft and will remain in service for at least 20 years. If the AG-EVTOL would provide weekday air-commuting services for two clients (one client may be one or two persons) and weekend air-commuting services for one client (one or two persons), its yearly specific flying distance would be [200*230*2+2100*26], i.e., around 146,600 mi. With the fuel cost of $2.6 per gal and air-vehicle's fuel economy of 26 MPG, amortization- and fuel-associated costs will be [$250,000/20/146,600+$2.6/26], i.e. $0.185 per mi. 

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The specific operating costs, such as administrative expenses, maintenance, cleaning, insurance, public landing pod-related costs, navigation, etc., are expected to be at most  $0.125 per mi. Specific profit is estimated at $0.19 per mi, i.e., around $27,800 annually. Accordingly, the price of one a year weekday air-commuting package for one client is calculated at [200*230*0.5], i.e. $23,000, and that of a weekend air-commuting service for one client at [2100*26*0.5], i.e. $27,300. 

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The gate-to-gate flight time  between New York, JFK and Sarasota, the Bradenton airport, is around 3 hours. Typically, Manhattan residents board a taxi at least 2.5 hours before the flight departure time from JFK. Accordingly, a door-to-door trip takes about 6.5 hours if the time between an aircraft's landing and getting from an airport to a final destination is estimated at one hour. 

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Since a flying distance between JFK and Sarasota is 1,050mi, then taking the same flight by AG-EVTOL from one of the landing pads in Manhattan to one of the landing pads closest to the client's house  will take [1,050/188+1], i.e., 6,6 hours, if a client chooses to have two 30 minutes stops during the flight. Since AG-EVTOL for weekday air-commuting is to be designed in a "sleeping coach for two persons" configuration, the passenger(s) will be able to sleep during night flights.

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This example shows that a weekend air-commuting by AG-EVTOLs within the range of around 1,050 mi is in all aspects superior to conventional short-haul flights. Regarding farther distances it is also superior, except for a door-to-door travel time. For many people flying by AG-EVTOLs for longer distances would, nonetheless, be the better choice due to exceptional convenience, including an opportunity to choose the nearest of many landing pods, enjoy full-fledged sleep during the night flight, ability to adjust departure and arrival times; lower prices. Also, since AG-EVTOLs are expected to cruise at altitudes of several hundred meters, a cabin's pressure, and air humidity would be much healthier than those in a conventional aircraft, where pressure is around 20% below the normal level and air is dry. 

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For pseudo-medium-haul routes, i.e., the medium-haul routes with several short stops for passengers' convenience,  the specific flight cost substantially decreases because the annual flying distance goes up. For example, if AG-EVTOL were taking a 2,600 mi one-way flight from JFK to San Francisco six days in a week, its annual flying distance would be [2,600*365*(6/7)/200,000], i.e., 0.8 m mi, which is around five times greater that of weekday air-commuting by AG-EVTOL.

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An AG-EVTOL for a pseudo-medium-haul flight would need to fly faster. Increasing its power from 144 kW to 200 kW would boost the speed from 188 MPH to around [188*sqrt(200/144)], i.e. 220 MPH, and reduce fuel economy to [220/(200/0.6)/33.7)], i.e. 22 MPG. 

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With the cost of fuel of $2.6 per gal and air-vehicle's fuel economy of 22 MPG, the specific amortization- and fuel-associated costs would be [250,000/20/800,000+2.6/22], i.e. $0.135 per mi The operating cost, such as administrative expenses, maintenance, cleaning, insurance, public landing pods related costs, navigation, etc. would not expected to exceed $0.09 per mi, i.e. $68,000 annually. Specific profit would be $0.075 per mi, $60,000 annually. The overall specific cost would be [0.135+0.09+0.075], i.e., $0.30 per mi.

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A flight between New York, JFK, and San Fransisco, with up to three 30-minute stops, would take [2,600/220+3*0.5], i.e. 13.3 hours. We assume that many people would prefer to take advantage of AG-EVTOL with two sleeping coaches to fly from Manhattan to San Francisco so that they could have a full-fledged rest during a round trip night flight for the [(2,600*2*0.30/2], i.e., around $780, instead of spending sleepless nights in cramped economy class of a conventional aircraft for substantially the same price.     

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The development of the AG-EVTOL segment is crucial for a national economy because it will become an affordable, fast, and safe means of transportation in times of pandemic crises when conventional aviation flights are likely halted.